XAUUSD Daily Market Analysis—May 9, 2025

Neom
May 9
2 min read

Introduction

Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading at 3321 USD as of May 9, 2025, showing interesting technical patterns across multiple timeframes. This analysis combines classical technical indicators with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) to identify high-probability trading opportunities.

Technical Analysis

1. Support & Resistance Levels

Daily Timeframe:

Support: 3285 (recent swing low), 3250 (psychological level), 3201 (major swing low)
Resistance: 3350 (recent swing high), 3400 (psychological level), 3499 (yearly high)

4-Hour Timeframe:

Support: 3305 (intraday low), 3285 (daily confluence), 3250
Resistance: 3335 (Asian session high), 3350 (daily confluence), 3375

2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels (Daily Swing 3201-3499)

23.6%: 3375
38.2%: 3328 (current price zone)
50%: 3350
61.8%: 3372
78.6%: 3405

3. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

Daily Timeframe:

EMA 50: 3295
EMA 100: 3260
EMA 200: 3225
EMA 400: 3180

4-Hour Timeframe:

EMA 50: 3310
EMA 100: 3295
EMA 200: 3270
EMA 400: 3235

4. RSI Divergence

The daily RSI (14) at 52 shows:

Bullish divergence forming from recent lows
Potential momentum shift if price holds above 3300
4-hour RSI at 48 suggests neutral conditions

5. Order Blocks

Bullish OB: 3280-3300 zone (recent accumulation)
Bearish OB: 3350-3375 zone (previous distribution)

6. MACD Analysis

Daily MACD: Histogram turning positive, signal line crossover imminent
4-hour MACD: Flat near zero line, awaiting direction

7. Pivot Points

Weekly Pivots:

P: 3315
S1: 3270
R1: 3360

Daily Pivots:

P: 3320
S1: 3300
R1: 3340

Fundamental Analysis & USD News Impact

Upcoming USD Events (May 2025):

May 12: Fed Chair Powell Speech
- Potential market mover for gold
- Hawkish tone could pressure XAUUSD
- Dovish remarks may support gold prices
May 14: US CPI Data Release
- Expected 3.2% YoY (previous 3.5%)
- Higher inflation = gold bullish
- Lower readings may strengthen USD
May 15: Retail Sales Data
- Consumer strength indicator
- Strong data = USD positive, gold negative

Summary of Key Levels

Support & Resistance:

Daily: 3285-3350 range
4-Hour: 3305-3335 range

EMA Levels:

Daily: 3295 (50), 3260 (100), 3225 (200)
4-Hour: 3310 (50), 3295 (100), 3270 (200)

Pivot Points:

Weekly: 3315 (P), 3270 (S1), 3360 (R1)
Daily: 3320 (P), 3300 (S1), 3340 (R1)

Fibonacci:

Key levels at 3328 (38.2%) and 3350 (50%)

Conclusion

Gold remains in a consolidation phase between 3285-3350 with mixed technical signals. The proximity to multiple EMA levels and Fibonacci retracements suggests potential breakout opportunities. Traders should monitor the USD events next week, particularly Fed commentary and CPI data, which could determine gold's next directional move.