XAUUSD Daily Market Analysis—May 8, 2025

Executive Summary

Gold (XAUUSD) is currently trading at 3398 USD, showing mixed signals across different timeframes. This analysis combines technical indicators from daily and 4-hour charts with upcoming fundamental drivers to provide a comprehensive market outlook.

Technical Analysis

Daily Timeframe Analysis

Support & Resistance Levels

• Key Support: 3365 (recent swing low consolidation zone)

• Intermediate Support: 3382 (psychological level + previous daily close)

• Resistance: 3415 (recent swing high), followed by 3438 (year-to-date high)
  

Fibonacci Retracement (Swing: 1.32077 to 1.27081)

• 23.6%: 3372

• 38.2%: 3388

• 50%: 3398 (current price aligns with this level)

• 61.8%: 3408

• 78.6%: 3422
  

EMA Levels

• EMA 50: 3385 (bullish crossover potential)

• EMA 100: 3368 (major support)

• EMA 200: 3342 (long-term trend support)

• EMA 400: 3315 (strategic accumulation zone)
  

Other Indicators

• RSI: 54 (neutral, slight bullish divergence forming)

• MACD: Histogram turning positive, potential golden cross

• Order Blocks: Significant buy orders clustered at 3375-3385 range
  

4-Hour Timeframe Analysis

Support & Resistance

• Immediate Support: 3392 (Asian session low)

• Secondary Support: 3378 (London session reaction zone)

• Resistance: 3405 (overnight high), then 3418
  

EMA Levels

• EMA 50: 3392 (intraday pivot)

• EMA 100: 3384

• EMA 200: 3371

• EMA 400: 3356
  

Market Structure

• Higher highs/lows pattern intact but showing fatigue

• Potential bearish divergence on RSI (price higher highs vs RSI lower highs)

• MACD showing reduced bullish momentum
  

Pivot Points Analysis

Weekly Pivots

1. Standard Pivot: 3395

2. Resistance 1: 3412

3. Support 1: 3378
   

Daily Pivots

1. Central Pivot: 3398 (current price)

2. Resistance 1: 3406

3. Support 1: 3390
   

Smart Money Concepts (SMC)

• Liquidity Pools: Clear above 3415 (stop hunt potential)

• Fair Value Gap: 3388-3395 zone likely to attract price

• Break of Structure: Bullish above 3415, bearish below 3375
  

Fundamental Analysis & USD News Outlook

Upcoming USD Events (May 2025)

1. May 9 - Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
   

   • Expected: 185K | Previous: 175K

   • Gold Impact: Stronger than expected data → USD strength → Gold pressure

   • Weak data → Gold rally likely
     

2. May 12 - Fed Chair Powell Speech
   

   • Market will scrutinize inflation/tightening clues

   • Hawkish tone → Gold negative

   • Dovish hints → Gold supportive
     

3. May 15 - US Retail Sales & PPI
   

   • Inflation component critical for Fed policy expectations

   • Hot readings → Gold bearish

   • Cool numbers → Gold bullish
     

Macro Context

• Geopolitical tensions (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) continue supporting gold

• Global central bank buying remains strong

• Real yields still negative after inflation → gold favorable
  

Key Levels Summary

Daily Timeframe

• Support: 3385 (EMA 50), 3368 (EMA 100), 3342 (EMA 200)

• Resistance: 3408 (Fib 61.8%), 3415 (swing high), 3438 (YTD high)

• Pivots: 3395 (weekly), 3398 (daily)
  

4-Hour Timeframe

• Support: 3392 (EMA 50), 3384 (EMA 100), 3371 (EMA 200)

• Resistance: 3405 (overnight high), 3418 (previous reaction high)

• Pivots: 3398 (central), 3406/3390 (R1/S1)
  

Conclusion

Gold sits at a critical juncture at 3398, precisely at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The confluence of technical factors suggests potential volatility ahead of key US data. Traders should watch the 3385-3405 range for breakout direction, with fundamental catalysts likely determining the next sustained move. Risk management remains paramount given the upcoming high-impact events.