🟡 XAUUSD Daily Market Analysis—July 4, 2025

Market Overview 📊

As of today, the live price of gold (XAUUSD) stands at 3341 USD. This analysis will provide a detailed examination of the current market conditions using various technical indicators across daily and 4-hour time frames. Key indicators such as Fibonacci Retracement Levels, Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), RSI divergence, support and resistance levels, order blocks, and MACD will be utilized to offer insights into potential price movements.

Current Market Analysis 🔍

Support and Resistance Levels

Daily Time Frame:

• Support Levels:
  

  • 3244: This level corresponds to the recent swing low and serves as a critical support zone.

  • 3300: A psychological level that traders often monitor for potential reversals.
    

• Resistance Levels:
  

  • 3451: This swing high has proven to be a significant resistance point.

  • 3400: Another psychological resistance level that may attract sellers.
    

4-Hour Time Frame:

• Support Levels:
  

  • 3300: A minor support level that has held in recent trading sessions.

  • 3320: A key level where buying interest may emerge.
    

• Resistance Levels:
  

  • 3350: A notable resistance level where price action has reversed in the past.

  • 3360: A higher resistance level that traders should monitor.
    

Fibonacci Retracement Levels 📏

Using the Fibonacci Retracement tool, the key levels from the recent swing high of 3451 to the swing low of 3244 provide critical insights:

• 23.6% Level: 3350

• 38.2% Level: 3360

• 50.0% Level: 3369

• 61.8% Level: 3380
  

These levels can act as potential reversal points, with the 61.8% retracement being particularly significant for traders looking for entries on pullbacks.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) 📈

Daily Time Frame:

• EMA 50: 3350

• EMA 100: 3345

• EMA 200: 3330

• EMA 400: 3320
  

The EMA levels indicate that the price is currently trading above the shorter-term EMAs (50 and 100), suggesting a bullish trend in the short to medium term.

4-Hour Time Frame:

• EMA 50: 3340

• EMA 100: 3335

• EMA 200: 3330

• EMA 400: 3325
  

On the 4-hour chart, the price is also above the 50 EMA, indicating continued bullish momentum. However, the proximity of the price to the EMA levels suggests that traders should remain cautious of potential pullbacks.

RSI Divergence 📉

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing signs of divergence. While the price has reached new highs, the RSI has not confirmed this movement, indicating a potential weakening of momentum. This divergence suggests that traders should be vigilant for possible reversals or corrections, especially near the identified resistance levels.

Order Blocks 📦

Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling has occurred, creating potential support or resistance zones. In the current market, the most notable order block is located near 3300, where buying interest has been strong. Traders should monitor this area for potential reversals or continuations.

MACD Analysis 📊

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is currently in a bullish phase, with the MACD line above the signal line. This alignment suggests that the bullish momentum may continue in the short term. However, traders should watch for any signs of convergence that could indicate a weakening trend.

Summary of Key Levels 📌

Daily & 4-Hour Support and Resistance

• Daily Support Levels: 3244, 3300

• Daily Resistance Levels: 3451, 3400

• 4-Hour Support Levels: 3300, 3320

• 4-Hour Resistance Levels: 3350, 3360
  

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Levels

• Daily EMA Levels:
  

  • EMA 50: 3350

  • EMA 100: 3345

  • EMA 200: 3330

  • EMA 400: 3320
    

• 4-Hour EMA Levels:
  

  • EMA 50: 3340

  • EMA 100: 3335

  • EMA 200: 3330

  • EMA 400: 3325
    

Weekly Pivots

• Weekly Pivot Points:
  

  • Pivot: 3340

  • Resistance 1: 3360

  • Support 1: 3320
    

Daily Pivots

• Daily Pivot Points:
  

  • Pivot: 3345

  • Resistance 1: 3355

  • Support 1: 3335
    

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• Fibonacci Levels:
  

  • 23.6%: 3350

  • 38.2%: 3360

  • 50.0%: 3369

  • 61.8%: 3380
    

Fundamental Analysis and Upcoming USD News 📅

As we look ahead, several important economic events could impact the gold market. Key USD news to watch includes:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Scheduled for July 7, 2025, this report will provide insights into the U.S. job market and could significantly influence the USD's strength. A strong NFP report typically supports the USD, potentially leading to downward pressure on gold prices. 📉
  

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): Set for July 12, 2025, this inflation report will be crucial for understanding consumer spending trends. Higher inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates, impacting the USD and subsequently the gold market. 📈
  

• FOMC Meeting Minutes: Scheduled for July 13, 2025, the release of these minutes will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, which can affect market sentiment and the USD's value.
  

These upcoming events are vital for traders to consider, as they can lead to increased volatility and potential trading opportunities in the gold market.

Conclusion 📝

In summary, the XAUUSD is currently positioned within a bullish trend, supported by key indicators such as Fibonacci levels, EMAs, and MACD. However, traders should remain cautious of potential reversals indicated by RSI divergence and monitor critical support and resistance levels. With upcoming USD news events on the horizon, maintaining awareness of fundamental factors will be essential for making informed trading decisions. By integrating both technical and fundamental analyses, traders can enhance their strategies and navigate the XAUUSD market effectively.