🟡 XAUUSD Daily Market Analysis—August 15, 2025

Introduction

The gold market, represented by XAUUSD, has been a focal point for traders and investors alike. As of today, the live price of gold stands at 3343 USD. This analysis aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the market using various technical indicators, including Fibonacci retracement levels, Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), RSI divergence, and Smart Money Concepts (SMC). We will examine both the daily and 4-hour time frames to identify critical support and resistance levels, along with other pivotal indicators that can guide trading decisions.

Market Analysis

Support & Resistance Levels

Daily Time Frame:

• Support Levels:
  

  • First Support: 3300 USD

  • Second Support: 3280 USD

  • Third Support: 3268 USD (Swing Low)
    

• Resistance Levels:
  

  • First Resistance: 3360 USD

  • Second Resistance: 3380 USD

  • Third Resistance: 3409 USD (Swing High)
    

4-Hour Time Frame:

• Support Levels:
  

  • First Support: 3320 USD

  • Second Support: 3305 USD

  • Third Support: 3290 USD
    

• Resistance Levels:
  

  • First Resistance: 3350 USD

  • Second Resistance: 3375 USD

  • Third Resistance: 3390 USD
    

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, we can identify key levels based on the recent swing high of 3409 USD and swing low of 3268 USD. The primary retracement levels are as follows:

• 23.6% Retracement: 3323 USD

• 38.2% Retracement: 3337 USD

• 50.0% Retracement: 3340 USD

• 61.8% Retracement: 3354 USD
  

These levels can serve as potential support and resistance zones as the price fluctuates.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

Daily Time Frame:

• EMA 50: 3310 USD

• EMA 100: 3285 USD

• EMA 200: 3250 USD

• EMA 400: 3220 USD
  

4-Hour Time Frame:

• EMA 50: 3330 USD

• EMA 100: 3315 USD

• EMA 200: 3290 USD

• EMA 400: 3275 USD
  

The EMAs provide insight into the market's trend direction. Currently, the price is above the EMAs on the daily time frame, indicating a bullish sentiment.

RSI Divergence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing a divergence on the daily chart. While the price reached a new high near 3409 USD, the RSI failed to confirm this move, indicating potential weakness in the upward momentum. Traders should watch for a possible correction or pullback as the market may be overbought.

Order Blocks

Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling has occurred, indicating potential reversal points. On the daily time frame, a notable order block is located around 3300 USD, which aligns with our support levels. This zone can act as a strong buying opportunity if the price approaches this area.

MACD Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is currently showing bullish momentum, with the MACD line above the signal line. This suggests that the upward trend may continue in the short term. However, traders should remain cautious due to the RSI divergence indicating possible overbought conditions.

Summary of Key Levels

Daily & 4-Hour Support and Resistance

• Daily Support Levels: 3300 USD, 3280 USD, 3268 USD

• Daily Resistance Levels: 3360 USD, 3380 USD, 3409 USD

• 4-Hour Support Levels: 3320 USD, 3305 USD, 3290 USD

• 4-Hour Resistance Levels: 3350 USD, 3375 USD, 3390 USD
  

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Levels

• Daily EMA Levels:
  

  • EMA 50: 3310 USD

  • EMA 100: 3285 USD

  • EMA 200: 3250 USD

  • EMA 400: 3220 USD
    

• 4-Hour EMA Levels:
  

  • EMA 50: 3330 USD

  • EMA 100: 3315 USD

  • EMA 200: 3290 USD

  • EMA 400: 3275 USD
    

Weekly Pivots

• Weekly Pivot Levels:
  

  • Pivot Point: 3345 USD

  • Resistance 1: 3365 USD

  • Support 1: 3325 USD
    

Daily Pivots

• Daily Pivot Levels:
  

  • Pivot Point: 3340 USD

  • Resistance 1: 3355 USD

  • Support 1: 3325 USD
    

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• Fibonacci Levels:
  

  • 23.6%: 3323 USD

  • 38.2%: 3337 USD

  • 50.0%: 3340 USD

  • 61.8%: 3354 USD
    

Fundamental Analysis and Upcoming USD News 📈

As we look ahead, several important USD news events are scheduled that could significantly impact the gold market. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rate decisions will be announced. Any changes in monetary policy or indications of future rate hikes can lead to fluctuations in the gold price, as gold typically moves inversely to the strength of the USD.

Additionally, the release of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is on the horizon. This report provides insights into employment trends in the U.S. economy, and stronger-than-expected job growth could strengthen the USD, potentially leading to downward pressure on gold prices.

Conclusion

In summary, the current analysis of XAUUSD reveals a complex picture of the gold market. With key support and resistance levels identified, along with critical indicators such as Fibonacci retracement levels and EMAs, traders are equipped with valuable insights for making informed decisions. As we approach significant USD news events, staying attuned to market developments will be essential for navigating the volatility that may arise.