🟡 Gold XAUUSD Daily Market Analysis—May 7, 2025

📊 Technical Analysis Overview

Current Market Status

• Live Price: 3374 USD (as of 09:25 UTC)

• Daily Range: 3201 (Swing Low) - 3499 (Swing High)

Key Trend: The price is currently trading between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, indicating a potential consolidation phase after recent volatility.

📈 Multi-Timeframe Analysis

Daily Timeframe Indicators

1. Support & Resistance Levels

• Immediate Support: 3345 (recent swing low)

• Secondary Support: 3300 (psychological level)

• Resistance: 3400 (round number barrier)

• Major Resistance: 3450 (previous swing high)

2. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

• EMA 50: 3352

• EMA 100: 3328

• EMA 200: 3295

• EMA 400: 3250

3. Fibonacci Retracement (Swing: 3201-3499)

• 23.6%: 3345

• 38.2%: 3315

• 50%: 3285

• 61.8%: 3255

• 78.6%: 3215

4. Pivot Points

Daily Pivots:

R1: 3395

Pivot: 3350

S1: 3310

Weekly Pivots:

R1: 3420

Pivot: 3375

S1: 3330

4-Hour Timeframe Indicators

1. Support & Resistance Levels

• Support: 3360 (recent consolidation low)

• Resistance: 3385 (yesterday's high)

2. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

• EMA 50: 3368

• EMA 100: 3355

• EMA 200: 3338

• EMA 400: 3312

3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC)

Order Blocks:

• Bullish OB: 3340-3350 zone (from May 5 consolidation)

• Bearish OB: 3385-3400 zone (from May 3 rejection)

Liquidity Pools:

• Above 3400 (stop hunts likely)

• Below 3340 (potential liquidity grab)

🔍 Indicator Analysis

1. RSI Divergence

• Daily RSI: 54 (neutral territory)

• 4H RSI: 48 (slight bearish momentum)

• Hidden Bullish Divergence: Forming on 4H chart as price makes higher lows while RSI shows lower lows

2. MACD Analysis

• Daily MACD:

• Signal line crossing above MACD line

• Histogram bars turning positive
  

4H MACD:

• Bearish crossover forming

• Declining histogram momentum

🌍 Fundamental Analysis & USD News Impact

Upcoming USD Events (May 2025)

May 8: Fed Chair Powell Speech

• Potential impact: Hawkish tone → USD strength → Gold pressure

• Dovish tone → USD weakness → Gold support
  

May 9: US Initial Jobless Claims

• Higher than expected → Gold bullish

• Lower than expected → Gold bearish
  

May 12: US CPI Data (Month-over-Month)

• Hot inflation → Rate hike fears → Gold pressure

• Cool inflation → Rate cut hopes → Gold support

Current Market Sentiment

The USD index is showing slight weakness after recent Fed comments about potential rate cuts in Q3 2025

Geopolitical tensions in Middle East continue to provide safe-haven support for gold

Real yields remain negative, supporting gold's appeal as inflation hedge

📌 Key Levels Summary

Daily Timeframe

• Support: 3345 / 3300 / 3285 (Fib 50%)

• Resistance: 3400 / 3450 / 3499 (Swing High)

• EMA Levels: 3352 (50) / 3328 (100) / 3295 (200) / 3250 (400)

• Pivots: 3350 (P) / 3395 (R1) / 3310 (S1)

4-Hour Timeframe

• Support: 3360 / 3340 / 3315

• Resistance: 3385 / 3400 / 3420

• EMA Levels: 3368 (50) / 3355 (100) / 3338 (200) / 3312 (400)

• Fibonacci Levels (3201-3499)

• Key Levels: 3345 (23.6%) / 3315 (38.2%) / 3285 (50%) / 3255 (61.8%)

🚨 Risk Management Considerations

Position sizing: 1-2% risk per trade

Avoid trading during high-impact news events

Watch for potential stop hunts around key levels

Consider gold's correlation with USD and real yields