DXY 17th March 2025 Daily Analysis Based on Main Key Levels

Daily Current Market Price (DCMP): 103.510

🎯 Immediate Price Framework

Above DCMP (Resistance)

🔴 R1: 103.682 | 🎯 R2: 104.014 | 🚨 R3: 104.552

Below DCMP (Support)

🟢 S1: 103.350 | 🎯 S2: 103.144 | 🚨 S3: 102.812

Swing Reference:

📈 Swing High: 107.661 | 📉 Swing Low: 106.126

🔍 Technical Configuration

Price Architecture

Tight range between 103.350–103.682 with DCMP as equilibrium

Fib Confluence:

61.8% retracement from Swing Low aligns with 103.600 (support)

38.2% extension from Swing High creates resistance at 103.997

Momentum Signals

RSI: Bearish divergence on 4H charts despite neutral 52 reading

MACD: Histogram below zero with bearish crossover

Volume Profile: Declining participation near 103.682 resistance

⚡ Tactical Trade Setups

Trade Idea ①: Intraday Buy

📍 Entry: 103.350 (Weekly Pivot + Fib 61.8% confluence)

🛑 Stop Loss: 102.812 (Below S3)

🎯 Targets:

103.510 (DCMP Mean Reversion)

103.799 (Daily Pivot)

Catalyst: Bullish hammer pattern on 1H + Oversold Stochastic

Trade Idea ②: Intraday Sell

📍 Entry: 103.682 (Weekly R1 + Fib 38.2% zone)

🛑 Stop Loss: 104.014 (Above R2)

🎯 Targets:

103.350 (S1 Support)

103.144 (Liquidity Pool)

Confirmation: Bearish engulfing candle on 4H + Rising USD bond yields

🧭 Strategic Outlook

Battle Lines:

Bullish Break: Close above 103.682 needed for rally toward 104.319

Bearish Trigger: Breakdown below 103.350 risks test of 102.812

Critical Watch:

Fed interest rate decision impact

EUR/USD correlation dynamics

📌 Risk Management Protocol

Validate levels with 30min closing prices

Trail stops using 20-period EMA on 15min chart

Monitor US 10Y Treasury yield (Current: 4.32%)

Avoid trading during high-impact news events