BTCUSD Daily Market Analysis—May 7, 2025

Market Overview

The BTCUSD pair is currently trading at 96,999 USD, showing significant volatility this week. This analysis will examine both daily and 4-hour timeframes using multiple technical indicators to identify key levels and potential market movements.

Technical Analysis

Support & Resistance Levels

Daily Timeframe:

• Support 1: 94,320 USD

• Support 2: 92,150 USD

• Resistance 1: 98,750 USD

• Resistance 2: 101,200 USD

4-Hour Timeframe:

• Support 1: 95,800 USD

• Support 2: 94,500 USD

• Resistance 1: 97,850 USD

• Resistance 2: 99,100 USD

Fibonacci Retracement Levels (Daily Swing Levels)

Using the recent swing high of 86,450 USD and swing low of 83,974 USD:

• 23.6%: 84,560 USD

• 38.2%: 85,120 USD

• 50%: 85,712 USD

• 61.8%: 86,305 USD

• 78.6%: 87,150 USD

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

Daily Timeframe:

• EMA 50: 95,420 USD

• EMA 100: 93,850 USD

• EMA 200: 91,230 USD

• EMA 400: 88,950 USD

4-Hour Timeframe:

• EMA 50: 96,150 USD

• EMA 100: 95,800 USD

• EMA 200: 94,200 USD

• EMA 400: 92,850 USD

RSI Divergence

The daily RSI currently shows bullish divergence at 62, indicating potential upward momentum. On the 4-hour chart, we observe a slight bearish divergence at 58, suggesting possible short-term pullback before continuation.

Order Blocks

Key order blocks to watch:

• Bullish OB: 95,200-95,800 USD zone

• Bearish OB: 98,000-98,600 USD zone

MACD Analysis

Daily MACD shows bullish crossover with histogram bars increasing, while 4-hour MACD indicates potential bearish crossover forming, creating an interesting divergence between timeframes.

Pivot Points

Weekly Pivots:

• PP: 95,850 USD

• R1: 97,920 USD

• S1: 93,780 USD

Daily Pivots:

• PP: 96,450 USD

• R1: 97,850 USD

• S1: 95,050 USD

Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Analysis

The market structure remains bullish on higher timeframes, with current price action showing signs of institutional accumulation between 95,000-96,500 USD. We're observing potential stop hunts below 95,000 USD before continuation upward.

Fundamental Analysis & USD News Impact

Upcoming USD News Events

• May 8 - Federal Reserve Chair Speech: Expected to provide clues about future monetary policy. Any hawkish tone could strengthen USD, potentially putting downward pressure on BTCUSD.

• May 9 - Non-Farm Payrolls Data: Strong employment numbers typically boost USD, which may create short-term bearish pressure on BTC.

• May 12 - US CPI Data: Higher inflation readings could lead to expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially benefiting USD against BTC.

These events create an environment of uncertainty that may increase BTCUSD volatility. Traders should watch for potential "sell the rumor, buy the news" scenarios where negative USD news might initially drop BTCUSD before recovering.

Summary of Key Levels

Support & Resistance

• Daily: S1 94,320 | R1 98,750

• 4-Hour: S1 95,800 | R1 97,850

EMA Levels

• Daily: 50EMA 95,420 | 200EMA 91,230

• 4-Hour: 50EMA 96,150 | 200EMA 94,200

Pivot Points

• Weekly: PP 95,850 | R1 97,920

• Daily: PP 96,450 | R1 97,850

Fibonacci Levels

Key levels: 38.2% (85,120) | 61.8% (86,305)