🟡 BTCUSD Daily Market Analysis—July 31, 2025

Introduction

In the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency trading, staying informed is crucial. Today, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the BTCUSD market, focusing on the current live price of $118,460. This analysis will cover both daily and 4-hour time frames, utilizing various technical indicators such as Fibonacci Retracement Levels, EMA, RSI divergence, and Smart Money Concepts (SMC).

Market Overview

The BTCUSD pair has shown significant volatility, influenced by both market sentiment and fundamental economic factors. As we delve into the technical analysis, we will highlight key support and resistance levels, moving averages, and other critical indicators that traders should consider.

Technical Analysis

Support & Resistance Levels

Daily Time Frame:

• Support Levels:
  

  • First Support: $114,518 (Swing Low)

  • Second Support: $116,000

  • Third Support: $117,000
    

• Resistance Levels:
  

  • First Resistance: $123,236 (Swing High)

  • Second Resistance: $121,000

  • Third Resistance: $119,500
    

4-Hour Time Frame:

• Support Levels:
  

  • First Support: $116,500

  • Second Support: $115,000

  • Third Support: $114,800
    

• Resistance Levels:
  

  • First Resistance: $119,500

  • Second Resistance: $120,500

  • Third Resistance: $121,500
    

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Using the Fibonacci Retracement tool, we identify key levels based on the recent swing high and low:

• Retracement Levels:
  

  • 23.6%: $116,500

  • 38.2%: $117,500

  • 50%: $118,000

  • 61.8%: $119,000

  • 78.6%: $120,000
    

These levels help traders identify potential reversal points and areas of interest for entering or exiting trades.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

Daily Time Frame:

• EMA 50: $117,200

• EMA 100: $116,800

• EMA 200: $115,500

• EMA 400: $114,000
  

4-Hour Time Frame:

• EMA 50: $117,500

• EMA 100: $116,200

• EMA 200: $115,000

• EMA 400: $114,500
  

The EMAs provide insights into the overall trend, with the shorter-term EMAs reacting more quickly to price changes compared to the longer-term EMAs.

RSI Divergence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing signs of divergence on the daily time frame. While BTCUSD has been making higher highs, the RSI is not confirming this trend, suggesting potential weakness in the upward movement. Traders should watch for a possible correction if this divergence continues.

Order Blocks

Order blocks are essential areas where institutional traders have placed significant buy or sell orders. In the current analysis:

• Bullish Order Block: Located around $115,000 to $116,000, indicating strong buying interest.

• Bearish Order Block: Found near $120,000 to $121,000, where selling pressure may emerge.
  

MACD Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is currently bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line. However, caution is advised as the histogram shows signs of flattening, indicating a potential slowdown in momentum.

Summary of Key Levels

Daily & 4-Hour Support and Resistance

• Daily Support Levels: $114,518, $116,000, $117,000

• Daily Resistance Levels: $123,236, $121,000, $119,500

• 4-Hour Support Levels: $116,500, $115,000, $114,800

• 4-Hour Resistance Levels: $119,500, $120,500, $121,500
  

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) Levels

• Daily EMA Levels:
  

  • EMA 50: $117,200

  • EMA 100: $116,800

  • EMA 200: $115,500

  • EMA 400: $114,000
    

• 4-Hour EMA Levels:
  

  • EMA 50: $117,500

  • EMA 100: $116,200

  • EMA 200: $115,000

  • EMA 400: $114,500
    

Weekly and Daily Pivots

• Weekly Pivot Levels:
  

  • Pivot Point: $118,500

  • Resistance 1: $120,000

  • Support 1: $117,000
    

• Daily Pivot Levels:
  

  • Pivot Point: $118,460

  • Resistance 1: $119,500

  • Support 1: $117,500
    

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• Key Fibonacci Levels: $116,500 (23.6%), $117,500 (38.2%), $118,000 (50%), $119,000 (61.8%), $120,000 (78.6%)
  

Fundamental Analysis and Upcoming USD News

As we analyze the BTCUSD market, it’s crucial to consider the broader economic context, particularly upcoming USD news that may impact market sentiment. This week, traders should keep an eye on the following events:

1. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: Scheduled for August 3, 2025, any changes in interest rates could significantly affect the USD and, consequently, BTCUSD prices.

2. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report: Due on August 7, 2025, this report will provide insights into employment trends, influencing market expectations for the economy.

3. Consumer Price Index (CPI): Expected to be released on August 10, 2025, this data will shed light on inflation and purchasing power, impacting investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies.
   

These economic indicators can create volatility in the BTCUSD market, and traders should be prepared for potential price swings around these events.

Conclusion

In summary, the BTCUSD market is currently positioned at a critical juncture, with various technical indicators suggesting both opportunities and risks. By closely monitoring support and resistance levels, EMAs, RSI divergence, and upcoming economic news, traders can make informed decisions in this dynamic market.