🟡 BTCUSD Daily Market Analysis—July 3, 2025

Neom
Jul 4
4 min read

Introduction 🌟

As of the latest market data, the BTCUSD is trading at 109,093 USD. This comprehensive analysis will delve into both daily and 4-hour time frames, utilizing various technical indicators to provide insights into the current market dynamics. By examining Fibonacci Retracement Levels, Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), RSI divergence, support and resistance levels, order blocks, and MACD, traders can gain a clearer understanding of potential price movements in the Bitcoin market.

Current Market Analysis 🔍

Support and Resistance Levels

Daily Time Frame:

Support Levels:
- 105,130: This level marks a significant swing low and serves as a strong support zone.
- 107,000: A psychological level that traders often monitor for potential reversals.
Resistance Levels:
- 110,587: The recent swing high that has proven to be a critical resistance point.
- 111,500: A higher resistance level that may attract selling pressure.

4-Hour Time Frame:

Support Levels:
- 108,000: A minor support level that has held in recent trading sessions.
- 108,500: Another key level where buying interest may emerge.
Resistance Levels:
- 109,500: A notable resistance level where price action has reversed in the past.
- 110,000: A psychological resistance level that traders should keep an eye on.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels 📏

Utilizing the Fibonacci Retracement tool, we can identify key levels from the recent swing high of 110,587 to the swing low of 105,130:

23.6% Level: 108,800
38.2% Level: 109,250
50.0% Level: 109,858
61.8% Level: 110,300

These levels are crucial for traders looking to identify potential reversal points, with the 61.8% retracement being particularly significant for entering trades on pullbacks.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) 📈

Daily Time Frame:

EMA 50: 108,450
EMA 100: 108,800
EMA 200: 109,200
EMA 400: 109,600

The EMA levels indicate that the price is currently trading above the shorter-term EMAs (50 and 100), suggesting a bullish trend in the short to medium term.

4-Hour Time Frame:

EMA 50: 109,000
EMA 100: 109,200
EMA 200: 109,400
EMA 400: 109,600

On the 4-hour chart, the price is also above the 50 EMA, indicating continued bullish momentum. However, the proximity of the price to these EMA levels suggests that traders should remain cautious of potential pullbacks.

RSI Divergence 📉

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing signs of divergence. While the price has reached new highs, the RSI has not confirmed this movement, indicating a potential weakening of momentum. This divergence suggests that traders should be vigilant for possible reversals or corrections, especially near the identified resistance levels.

Order Blocks 📦

Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling has occurred, creating potential support or resistance zones. In the current market, the most notable order block is located near 108,000, where buying interest has been strong. Traders should monitor this area for potential reversals or continuations.

MACD Analysis 📊

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is currently in a bullish phase, with the MACD line above the signal line. This alignment suggests that the bullish momentum may continue in the short term. However, traders should watch for any signs of convergence that could indicate a weakening trend.

Summary of Key Levels 📌

Daily & 4-Hour Support and Resistance

Daily Support Levels: 105,130, 107,000
Daily Resistance Levels: 110,587, 111,500
4-Hour Support Levels: 108,000, 108,500
4-Hour Resistance Levels: 109,500, 110,000

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Levels

Daily EMA Levels:
- EMA 50: 108,450
- EMA 100: 108,800
- EMA 200: 109,200
- EMA 400: 109,600
4-Hour EMA Levels:
- EMA 50: 109,000
- EMA 100: 109,200
- EMA 200: 109,400
- EMA 400: 109,600

Weekly Pivots

Weekly Pivot Points:
- Pivot: 109,000
- Resistance 1: 110,000
- Support 1: 108,000

Daily Pivots

Daily Pivot Points:
- Pivot: 109,200
- Resistance 1: 109,800
- Support 1: 108,500

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Fibonacci Levels:
- 23.6%: 108,800
- 38.2%: 109,250
- 50.0%: 109,858
- 61.8%: 110,300

Fundamental Analysis and Upcoming USD News 📅

Looking ahead, several important economic events could impact the BTCUSD market. Key USD news to watch includes:

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Scheduled for July 7, 2025, this report will provide insights into the U.S. job market and could significantly influence the USD's strength. A strong NFP report typically supports the USD, potentially leading to downward pressure on BTCUSD. 📉
Consumer Price Index (CPI): Set for July 12, 2025, this inflation report will be crucial for understanding consumer spending trends. Higher inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to adjust interest rates, impacting the USD and subsequently the BTCUSD pair. 📈
FOMC Meeting Minutes: Scheduled for July 13, 2025, the release of these minutes will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, which can affect market sentiment and the USD's value.

These upcoming events are vital for traders to consider, as they can lead to increased volatility and potential trading opportunities in the BTCUSD market.

Conclusion 📝

In summary, the BTCUSD is currently positioned within a bullish trend, supported by key indicators such as Fibonacci levels, EMAs, and MACD. However, traders should remain cautious of potential reversals indicated by RSI divergence and monitor critical support and resistance levels. With upcoming USD news events on the horizon, maintaining awareness of fundamental factors will be essential for making informed trading decisions. By integrating both technical and fundamental analyses, traders can enhance their strategies and navigate the BTCUSD market effectively.