🟡 BTCUSD Daily Market Analysis—July 29, 2025

Introduction

Welcome to our in-depth analysis of the BTCUSD market, currently trading at 118,174 USD. In this report, we will explore critical technical indicators, including Fibonacci Retracement Levels, Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), RSI divergence, and more. Additionally, we will discuss fundamental factors influencing the market, particularly focusing on upcoming USD news that could impact Bitcoin's price action.

Current Market Overview

As of the latest data, the BTCUSD pair is navigating within a significant range, with a swing high of 123,236 and a swing low of 114,518. Understanding these levels is crucial for identifying potential trading opportunities and gauging market sentiment.

Technical Analysis

Support and Resistance Levels

Daily Time Frame:

• Support Levels:
  

  • 114,518 (Recent swing low)

  • 115,000 (Psychological level)

  • 116,500 (Previous support area)
    

• Resistance Levels:
  

  • 123,236 (Recent swing high)

  • 124,000 (Psychological level)

  • 125,000 (Previous resistance area)
    

4-Hour Time Frame:

• Support Levels:
  

  • 117,000 (Recent low)

  • 116,800 (Minor support level)

  • 116,500 (Previous support area)
    

• Resistance Levels:
  

  • 119,000 (Immediate resistance level)

  • 120,000 (Minor resistance level)

  • 121,000 (Previous resistance area)
    

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Utilizing the Fibonacci retracement tool on the daily time frame, we can identify key levels based on the recent swing high and low:

• Key Fibonacci Levels:
  

  • 23.6% Retracement: 120,300

  • 38.2% Retracement: 118,900

  • 50% Retracement: 118,000

  • 61.8% Retracement: 117,100
    

These levels serve as potential reversal points, guiding traders in their decision-making processes.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

Daily Time Frame:

• EMA 50: 118,500

• EMA 100: 119,000

• EMA 200: 119,500

• EMA 400: 120,000
  

4-Hour Time Frame:

• EMA 50: 118,200

• EMA 100: 118,500

• EMA 200: 118,700

• EMA 400: 119,000
  

The EMAs are critical for identifying the trend direction, with the shorter EMAs providing insights into potential entry and exit points.

RSI Divergence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently showing signs of divergence on both daily and 4-hour time frames. This divergence indicates that while the price may be making new highs or lows, the RSI is not confirming these movements, suggesting potential reversals or corrections in the near future.

Order Blocks

Order blocks are areas where significant buying or selling has occurred, leading to price reversals. On the daily chart, we identify the following order blocks:

• Bullish Order Block: Around the 116,500 area, where buying interest has previously emerged.
  

• Bearish Order Block: Near the 120,000 area, where selling pressure has been evident.

These order blocks can provide critical insights into potential price action.

MACD Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is currently showing a bullish crossover on the daily time frame, suggesting potential upward momentum. However, on the 4-hour time frame, the MACD is nearing the zero line, indicating possible consolidation before the next move.

Summary of Key Levels

Daily & 4-Hour Support and Resistance

• Daily Support: 114,518, 115,000, 116,500

• Daily Resistance: 123,236, 124,000, 125,000

• 4-Hour Support: 117,000, 116,800, 116,500

• 4-Hour Resistance: 119,000, 120,000, 121,000
  

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Levels

• Daily EMA Levels:
  

  • EMA 50: 118,500

  • EMA 100: 119,000

  • EMA 200: 119,500

  • EMA 400: 120,000
    

• 4-Hour EMA Levels:
  

  • EMA 50: 118,200

  • EMA 100: 118,500

  • EMA 200: 118,700

  • EMA 400: 119,000
    

Weekly Pivots

• Weekly Pivot Points:
  

  • Pivot: 118,500

  • Resistance 1: 119,000

  • Support 1: 117,500
    

Daily Pivots

• Daily Pivot Points:
  

  • Pivot: 118,200

  • Resistance 1: 118,800

  • Support 1: 117,800
    

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• Key Levels:
  

  • 23.6%: 120,300

  • 38.2%: 118,900

  • 50%: 118,000

  • 61.8%: 117,100
    

Fundamental Analysis and Upcoming USD News

As we look ahead, several important economic events may impact the BTCUSD market:

📅 Upcoming Events:

• Federal Reserve Meeting: Scheduled for August 1, 2025, where interest rate decisions will be discussed. Any changes in monetary policy could significantly influence the USD and, consequently, the BTCUSD pair.

• CPI Release: The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on August 10, 2025, will provide insights into inflation trends, which are crucial for the Fed's decision-making process.
  

These events are likely to create volatility in the BTCUSD market, making it essential for traders to stay informed and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Conclusion

In summary, the BTCUSD market is currently navigating a critical phase, with key support and resistance levels, significant technical indicators, and upcoming fundamental news events shaping its trajectory. Traders should remain vigilant and utilize the insights from this analysis to make informed trading decisions.