🟡 BTCUSD Daily Market Analysis—July 2, 2025

Introduction

In today’s fast-paced cryptocurrency market, staying updated with the latest trends and indicators is crucial for traders and investors alike. As of the current market price of 106,953 USD for BTCUSD, we will delve into a comprehensive analysis using various technical indicators, including Fibonacci Retracement Levels, Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), RSI divergence, pivots, and more. This analysis will focus on both the daily and 4-hour timeframes to provide a holistic view of the market.

Market Analysis

Support & Resistance Levels

Daily Timeframe:

• Support Levels:
  

  • $104,500

  • $102,000

  • $100,000
    

• Resistance Levels:
  

  • $108,500

  • $110,000

  • $112,000
    

4-Hour Timeframe:

• Support Levels:
  

  • $106,000

  • $105,000

  • $104,000
    

• Resistance Levels:
  

  • $107,500

  • $108,000

  • $109,000
    

These support and resistance levels are critical for identifying potential price reversals or breakouts. The daily resistance at $108,500 is particularly significant as it aligns closely with the current market price, suggesting that traders should closely monitor this level for potential price action.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Using Fibonacci Retracement Levels based on the recent swing high of $110,587 and swing low of $98,240, we can identify the following key levels:

• 23.6% Level: $104,350

• 38.2% Level: $106,440

• 50.0% Level: $104,914

• 61.8% Level: $108,080
  

These levels serve as potential areas of interest for traders looking to enter or exit positions, especially if the price approaches these retracement zones.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

Daily EMA Levels:

• EMA 50: $106,200

• EMA 100: $105,800

• EMA 200: $104,500

• EMA 400: $102,300
  

4-Hour EMA Levels:

• EMA 50: $106,800

• EMA 100: $106,200

• EMA 200: $105,000

• EMA 400: $103,800
  

The EMAs provide insights into the overall trend of BTCUSD. Currently, the price is above the EMA 50 on the daily timeframe, indicating a bullish trend. Traders often look for crossovers between these EMAs as signals for potential entry or exit points.

RSI Divergence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Currently, we observe a divergence in the RSI on the daily timeframe, where the price is making higher highs while the RSI is making lower highs. This divergence may signal a potential reversal or correction in the current uptrend, and traders should be cautious of potential price weakness.

Order Blocks

Order blocks are significant price levels where large orders have been placed, indicating potential support or resistance zones. In our analysis, we identify the following order blocks:

• Bullish Order Block: Near $105,000, where buying interest has previously emerged.

• Bearish Order Block: Around $108,500, where selling pressure has been observed.

  
  

These order blocks provide insight into where institutional traders may be placing their orders, allowing retail traders to align their strategies accordingly.

MACD Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is another valuable indicator for assessing market momentum. Currently, the MACD line is above the signal line, indicating bullish momentum. However, if the MACD begins to converge with the signal line, it may suggest a potential slowdown in momentum, warranting a closer examination of price movements.

Summary of Key Levels

Daily & 4-Hour Support and Resistance

• Daily Support Levels: $104,500, $102,000, $100,000

• Daily Resistance Levels: $108,500, $110,000, $112,000

• 4-Hour Support Levels: $106,000, $105,000, $104,000

• 4-Hour Resistance Levels: $107,500, $108,000, $109,000
  

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Levels

• Daily EMA Levels:
  

  • EMA 50: $106,200

  • EMA 100: $105,800

  • EMA 200: $104,500

  • EMA 400: $102,300
    

• 4-Hour EMA Levels:
  

  • EMA 50: $106,800

  • EMA 100: $106,200

  • EMA 200: $105,000

  • EMA 400: $103,800
    

Weekly Pivots

• Pivot Level 1: $107,000

• Pivot Level 2: $106,500

• Pivot Level 3: $105,000
  

Daily Pivots

• Pivot Level 1: $106,800

• Pivot Level 2: $106,300

• Pivot Level 3: $105,600
  

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

• 23.6% Level: $104,350

• 38.2% Level: $106,440

• 50.0% Level: $104,914

• 61.8% Level: $108,080
  

Fundamental Analysis and Upcoming USD News

As we analyze the BTCUSD market, it’s essential to consider the broader economic context, particularly regarding the USD. Upcoming economic events that could impact the BTCUSD market include:

• Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Scheduled for July 7, 2025, this report provides insights into employment trends in the U.S. and can significantly influence USD strength.

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): To be released on July 12, 2025, the CPI report will shed light on inflation trends, impacting Federal Reserve policies and, consequently, the USD.

• Federal Reserve Meeting: On July 25, 2025, any announcements regarding interest rate changes or economic outlook could lead to volatility in the USD and affect BTCUSD prices.
  

Traders should remain vigilant during these periods, as significant fluctuations in USD can lead to corresponding movements in the cryptocurrency markets.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the current BTCUSD price of 106,953 USD sits at a critical juncture, surrounded by key support and resistance levels. The analysis of Fibonacci retracement levels, EMAs, RSI divergence, order blocks, and MACD provides a comprehensive view of potential market movements. Additionally, keeping an eye on upcoming USD economic events will be crucial for traders navigating this dynamic market. By leveraging these insights, traders can make informed decisions and enhance their trading strategies.