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Neom Financial Academy

🟡 BTCUSD Daily Market Analysis—August 4, 2025

  • Neom
  • Aug 4
  • 3 min read

Introduction

In the ever-evolving landscape of cryptocurrency trading, understanding market dynamics is crucial for making informed decisions. Today's analysis focuses on BTCUSD, currently priced at $114,351. We will delve into various indicators such as Fibonacci Retracement Levels, Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence, Weekly and Daily Pivots, Smart Money Concepts (SMC), Support and Resistance Levels, Order Blocks, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). This comprehensive overview will help traders navigate the market effectively.

Market Analysis Overview

Current Market Price: $114,351

Support & Resistance Levels

Daily Time Frame:

  • Support Levels:

    • $114,518 (Recent Swing Low)

    • $113,000

    • $111,500

  • Resistance Levels:

    • $123,236 (Recent Swing High)

    • $125,000

    • $128,000

4-Hour Time Frame:

  • Support Levels:

    • $114,700

    • $114,000

    • $113,500

  • Resistance Levels:

    • $115,500

    • $116,000

    • $117,000

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Utilizing Fibonacci retracement can provide insights into potential reversal levels. Based on the recent swing high of $123,236 and swing low of $114,518, key Fibonacci levels are:

  • 23.6% Level: $116,000

  • 38.2% Level: $115,000

  • 50% Level: $118,000

  • 61.8% Level: $120,000

These levels indicate where price action might find support or resistance as it retraces.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA)

Daily EMA Levels:

  • EMA 50: $115,000

  • EMA 100: $114,200

  • EMA 200: $112,800

  • EMA 400: $110,500

4-Hour EMA Levels:

  • EMA 50: $114,900

  • EMA 100: $114,600

  • EMA 200: $114,300

  • EMA 400: $113,500

The EMAs provide a smoothed view of price trends over different time frames, helping traders identify potential entry and exit points.

RSI Divergence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Currently, we observe a potential bearish divergence as the price makes higher highs while the RSI shows lower highs. This divergence could indicate a weakening momentum, suggesting a possible price correction or reversal.

Order Blocks

Order blocks represent areas where significant buying or selling has occurred, often leading to price reversals. In the current analysis, we identify potential order blocks near the support levels of $114,700 and $114,000. These zones may act as critical areas for price action, providing opportunities for traders to enter positions.

MACD Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is another essential tool for traders. The MACD line crossing above the signal line can indicate bullish momentum, while a cross below may signal bearish trends. Currently, traders should monitor the MACD for potential buy or sell signals as it approaches key support and resistance levels.

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Summary of Key Levels

Daily & 4-Hour Support and Resistance

  • Daily Support Levels: $114,518, $113,000, $111,500

  • Daily Resistance Levels: $123,236, $125,000, $128,000

  • 4-Hour Support Levels: $114,700, $114,000, $113,500

  • 4-Hour Resistance Levels: $115,500, $116,000, $117,000

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Levels

  • Daily EMA Levels:

    • EMA 50: $115,000

    • EMA 100: $114,200

    • EMA 200: $112,800

    • EMA 400: $110,500

  • 4-Hour EMA Levels:

    • EMA 50: $114,900

    • EMA 100: $114,600

    • EMA 200: $114,300

    • EMA 400: $113,500

Weekly Pivots

  • Weekly Pivot Point: $116,500

  • Resistance Levels: $117,500, $118,500

  • Support Levels: $115,500, $114,500

Daily Pivots

  • Daily Pivot Point: $115,000

  • Resistance Levels: $116,000, $117,000

  • Support Levels: $114,000, $113,000

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

  • 23.6% Level: $116,000

  • 38.2% Level: $115,000

  • 50% Level: $118,000

  • 61.8% Level: $120,000

Fundamental Analysis and USD News

As we look ahead, it's crucial to consider the broader economic environment that influences the BTCUSD market. Upcoming USD news events can significantly impact market sentiment and price movements.

Important Upcoming USD News:

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report: Scheduled for release this month, the NFP report will provide insights into employment trends in the U.S. A strong report could lead to a stronger dollar, potentially putting downward pressure on BTC.

  • Federal Reserve Meetings: Anticipated discussions regarding interest rates could lead to volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Traders should stay alert to any announcements that could affect market liquidity.

  • Inflation Data Releases: The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be pivotal. Higher inflation could lead to increased interest in Bitcoin as a hedge against currency devaluation.

These economic indicators will play a crucial role in shaping market expectations and influencing BTCUSD's price trajectory.

Conclusion

The current analysis of BTCUSD reveals critical support and resistance levels, alongside valuable insights from various technical indicators. As traders navigate this dynamic market, understanding these levels and indicators will be vital for making informed trading decisions.

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